Senate races that could be impacted by the end of Roe v. wade

Democrats and Republicans are divided on the impact the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade’s landmark 1973 case establishing abortion rights will have over the Senate races, but early polls show it could make a difference in several key areas. states.

Republicans are confident heading into November that President Biden’s low approval rating will help GOP candidates. But the court’s decision to strike down a constitutional right that’s been around for 50 years gives Democrats a powerful argument.

A poll of 800 voters in Senate battleground states conducted on behalf of Demand Justice, a progressive group that favors Supreme Court reform, found Democrats are more court-focused than Republicans, 69 % to 60%, and the liberals are more committed to the court than the conservatives, 73% against 63%.

The poll, which was conducted by Hart Research Associates from June 7 to June 11, before the ruling overturning Roe, and released on Tuesday, showed 56% of voters wanted the court to uphold Roe, while 27% wanted to see it overturned. .

Here are six battleground states where the Supreme Court’s decision could tip the scales in November:

Wisconsin

The Planned Parenthood Action Fund launched an ad campaign in Wisconsin on Tuesday highlighting incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R) record on abortion rights. Recent polls show him essentially tied with his Democratic opponents.

Johnson was among a group of Senate Republicans who signed an amicus brief in July urging the courts to reconsider and strike down Roe, in whole or in part. The second-term senator has come under fire for saying people should move out if they don’t like the abortion laws in their state.

Abortions in Wisconsin are banned due to an 1849 law that remains in effect and came back into effect due to Friday’s Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

Democratic Gov. Tony Evers said he would grant clemency to anyone charged under the 1849 law.

Even so, clinics across the state suspended abortions on Friday after the ruling, and experts say the risk of lawsuits will put a significant damper on abortion services as patients and doctors could face lawsuits. after the departure of Evers.

Johnson’s general election opponent will not be known until after the Aug. 9 primaries.

North Carolina

Rep. Ted Budd, the Republican Senate nominee, hailed the court’s decision on Friday as a “historic victory.”

He also signed the amicus brief urging the courts to reconsider and overturn Roe v. Wade and hailed the “creativity” of a Texas law that bans abortion at six weeks and allows private citizens to enforce the law.

Budd called the Texas Heartbeat Act “a monumental step forward in the movement to protect unborn life”.

North Carolina is one of the most supportive states in the South, and abortion is legal there for the first 20 weeks of pregnancy.

Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has the power to veto new abortion restrictions from the Republican-controlled legislature.

A Meredith College poll of North Carolina voters conducted in April showed nearly 53% wanted to keep abortion legal until the 24th week of pregnancy and 62% said it should be allowed at least until the 15th week of pregnancy.

Higher Democratic turnout due to interest in abortion rights could help Democratic Senate candidate Cheri Beasley.

Pennsylvania

Gov. Tom Wolf (D) pledged earlier this year to veto six different anti-abortion bills introduced by Republican members of the General Assembly, giving the battle over the right to the high profile before the November elections.

Republican Senate candidate Mehmet Oz has campaigned as 100% anti-abortion, but he supports access to abortion in cases of rape, incest and when the mother’s life is in danger.

Pennsylvania conservatives are also pushing for a state constitutional amendment that would ensure the right to abortion is not enshrined in the state constitution, and GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano has presented a heartbeat bill in the state Senate in 2019 that would ban abortions after six weeks.

Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, the Democratic Senate candidate, said in a statement, “Abortion rights will be on the ballot in November in Pennsylvania.”

Currently, abortions are legal in the state for up to 24 weeks.

Arizona

The three main Republican candidates vying to challenge incumbent Senator Mark Kelly (D) backed the court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, giving the Democrats ammunition in the fall.

Arizona has a law dating back to 1901 prohibiting abortion unless it is necessary to save a mother’s life. And Gov. Doug Ducey (R) signed legislation in March banning abortion after 15 weeks, creating some confusion over which law would prevail.

Pro-abortion rights protesters held rallies in Phoenix, Flagstaff and Tucson after the court issued its ruling in Dobbs.

Police fired tear gas at protesters outside the gated state capitol in Phoenix.

A poll by OH Predictive Insights of more than 900 registered voters in Arizona in May found that 41% said abortion should be legal under all circumstances, 46% said it should be legal under certain circumstances and 13% said it should be illegal under all circumstances.

Three in five Arizona voters said they would be very or somewhat affected by a candidate’s position on abortion.

Georgia

Governor Brian Kemp (R) signed a law in 2019 banning abortion after six weeks, one of the most restrictive in the country.

That law was put on hold while the courts waited to see the outcome of the Dobbs case, and now Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr (R) is pushing for it to take effect.

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll in January showed that more than two-thirds of Georgia voters and half of Republican voters opposed Roe’s nullification.

Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker said in May that he wanted to ban abortion without exception.

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) voted last month to advance legislation to codify abortion rights.

“We’re basically talking about a ton of races where the contrast is clear. Look at the voters in Georgia. Nearly 70% of Georgia voters opposed Roe’s override and it’s even stronger among black voters. eight-seven [percent] black voters in Georgia opposed Roe’s cancellation. Seventy four [percent] are against the abortion law in Georgia,” said Sam Lau, spokesperson for Planned Parenthood Votes.

Nevada

GOP Senate nominee Adam Laxalt said “Roe v. Wade was always decided wrongly” and called the overturning of the landmark abortion rights case a “historic victory.”

Abortion rights, however, are strongly protected in Nevada, which codified them into law more than three decades ago.

Nevada residents voted for a referendum in 1990 allowing abortions within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy.

An October poll of 770 registered voters in Nevada found that 69% of voters favored abortion, while 31% considered themselves anti-abortion.

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